New Polity

Senate Races That Could Turn the Tide

In an election year marked by intense emotions and an anti-establishment voter mindset, Republicans are widely acknowledged to have a chance at reclaiming majorities in both chambers of Congress. At the very least, most polls and analyses point to a solid whipping at the polls for Democrats, who, after two years in government, will be held to account for lingering economic problems, national security concerns, and a host of other failures in governance ranging from ethics violations to a lack of action on illegal immigration. At this juncture in the 2010 midterm races, GOP prospects are admittedly better in the House of Representatives, although four Senate races may hold the key to a 51-49 Republican majority in the upper house.

First, Florida. Once considered a likely Republican hold, Governor Charlie Crist’s decision to run as an Independent has thrown a wrench into the works. The new dynamics of the Florida race are reflected in the polls; Rasmussen’s latest survey has Crist at 38% support, leading both conservative Republican Marco Rubio, who pulls in 34%, and Democrat Kendrick Meek, at 17%. Crist, who had previously pledged to run as a Republican, broke his promise as it became clear Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, would win the GOP primary in a landslide. Losing the Florida seat would be a crushing setback for the GOP and would likely eliminate any chance at a majority in the Senate. Whether Crist’s polling success is a temporary bounce or a lasting trend, Rubio must now reach out to moderate voters in order to win. Tying Crist to President Obama’s agenda of radical change may still be an effective tactic to energize his conservative base, but in order to win the election Rubio has to make gains among middle-of-the-road voters, a group currently giving Crist a significant (though by no means overwhelming) advantage. Basketball provides an apt analogy: teams lose seemingly insurmountable leads because they stop playing to win, and start playing not to lose. Their energy, their intensity, fades. Rubio hasn’t fallen into the trap yet, but the latest polls should serve as a reminder to campaign with renewed energy, utilizing his considerable charisma and exceptional communication skills to get voters outside of his base excited about his candidacy. Crist’s record hints that he may caucus with the Democrats if elected, highlighting to Republicans the importance of rallying behind Rubio.

In Illinois, the face-off is between Republican Congressman Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The Illinois seat is far more than a number, however, as the election of a Republican to Barack Obama’s old seat would be widely viewed as a repudiation of the President’s policies. Of course, other factors are in play, including Illinois Democrats’ ethics problems and the failure of Broadway Bank, the Giannoulias family-owned bank at which the Treasurer acquired much of his experience with finance. Kirk has the wind at his back, with Real Clear Politics giving him a five-point advantage as of May 10. Kirk leans conservative, but his focus on common sense, moderate solutions has played well with Illinois voters. Taken in their totality, these factors make Illinois an attractive chance for a GOP pickup.

Tom Campbell (R-CA) could unseat Barbara Boxer.

Barbara Boxer’s struggle to hold her California U.S. Senate seat may be the most interesting story of the election cycle. According to the conventional wisdom, the heavily Democratic state shouldn’t even be in the picture, but it is. Three Republicans are vying for the Republican nomination; including state Assemblyman Chuck Devore, former Congressman Tom Campbell, and former HP executive and McCain advisor Carly Fiorina. Selecting the right nominee will be the most important step in the attempt to unseat Boxer. If the polls hold true, California Republicans will do just that, nominating Tom Campbell as the challenger. Campbell’s mix of fiscal conservatism, free market thinking, and civil libertarianism uniquely positions him in the race; he will be able to make the case against the Democrats’ agenda for the economy without ruffling the feathers of California’s social liberals. He is also the only Republican to post a lead against Boxer in any noteworthy poll, a fact that may reflect a number of factors including his strong qualifications—Campbell is a professor with a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago—and his long history in California politics. California’s primary is on June 8^th. If Campbell wins, and if he is able, much like Scott Brown, to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiments, Barbara Boxer may be looking for a job in the near future.

In Washington state, Democrat Patty Murray appears ready to cruise to a fourth term, unless Dino Rossi decides to run for her seat. The former gubernatorial candidate shows considerable strength against Murray in the polls, but since he hasn’t announced yet the data has to be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, if Rossi runs he could give Republicans a chance.

A Republican majority is admittedly a reach, but it is possible. In all four of the races we’ve examined, the GOP has a chance, and therefore it also has a chance at the Senate.